What’s behind Iran’s alleged drone deal with Russia?
Russia’s recent missile and drone strikes on Ukraine have highlighted three developments in the war.
First, Iran appears to have played a major role in arming Russia.
Then there are strong signs that Russia’s missile stockpiles have been low
In the end, this new level of intensity means that Ukraine will need help from the West if this new influx of missiles is to be stopped.
In recent weeks, images of the Shahed-136 drone, with its distinctive delta wings against the sky, have circulated in global media, despite denials by Iran and Russia.
In Kyiv, tower residents watched in horror as drones flew under their windows, the lawnmower-like whine of their engines clearly discernible as they headed purposefully toward their intended targets.
Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for destruction as the region relentlessly enters winter.
Russia hopes that the plummeting temperatures will overwhelm and depress the Ukrainian population.
The rolling blackouts across the country clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of new Iranian-made drones in slowly destroying the country’s national grid.
The Shahed-136 is a loitering munition designed not to return but to be destroyed on impact, a guided flying bomb used by Russia as a cheap cruise missile.
Launched in groups, the drones are designed to fly low and avoid radar.
Their low altitude and slow speed mean they can be shot down by a single man like many, but they can also be used against frontline positions and are more maneuverable than faster missiles.
And they’re relatively cheap, at $20,000 each, compared with hundreds of thousands of dollars for such more advanced weapons – allowing Russian troops to fire salvos at Ukrainian cities and military positions.
Shahed-136s have 40kg warheads, they are precise machines that can cause significant damage.
Russia has been able to modify the Iranian drone and rename it “Geran-2,” guided by satellite positioning systems such as Russia’s global positioning system GLONASS.
Moscow’s claim that these renamed, modified and repainted drones are Russian-made and not Iranian-made at all – a thin layer of denial that has been swept away by overwhelming evidence that most manufacturers Native to Iran.
Meanwhile, Russia has used up most of its missile stockpile in a high-speed conflict with Ukraine that lasted only a few months.
With the economy still on a peacetime basis, there is no quick way to replenish its rapidly dwindling inventories. Russian missiles, while advanced, are expensive and time-consuming to manufacture.
With much of the world either opposed to invading countries or cowed by sanctions for doing business with Russia, it has few partners to turn to.
Iran’s new weapons
The irony of imposing sanctions on Iran is that it now has a strong military-industrial complex with a particular focus on drones and short- and medium-range missiles.
Tehran has steadily improved its domestic design, gradually increasing the range, accuracy and survivability of long-range drones, loitering munitions, and a large and growing arsenal of missiles such as the Fateh-110 and the more advanced variant Zolfaghar.
Both are road maneuverable and solid fuel, meaning they can emerge from a hidden position and launch within minutes, then duck back under cover.
This makes them more likely to survive any potential conflict.
Their range, Fateh-e-mobin (improved) is 300-500 km and Zolfaghar is 700 km, making them very useful in theater-level warfare, while their accuracy is down to a few meters and continues to improve, allowing them to hit specific point targets such as bridges, command posts and missile batteries.
Russian technology has helped improve the accuracy of its imported Iranian drones, and Moscow’s help is likely to do the same for these deadly weapons.
What is the reasoning behind Iran’s alleged move?
The UN Security Council is questioning whether Iran is violating treaty obligations by actively supporting Russia, a pariah on the world stage.
Even so, Iran has something to gain.
While many different models and types of drones and missiles are being built there, the true test of any weapon system is a brutal combat school with no prize for second place.
While some models have been tested by Iranian proxy forces in the past, a wealth of valuable information will be gleaned when the country’s weapons systems are pitted against the industrial-scale forces of Western arms supplies, which Iran can see. Face any potential future conflict.
Feedback from Iranian analysts and weapons designers will help improve future missiles and drones, making them more lethal.
Another reason for Iran’s involvement was reportedly
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